on social media subscriptions and the coming fall of influence

The news that Facebook and Instagram would be joining Twitter in charging for verification got me thinking about the state of social media and where it is going. The old business model for a social media platform was simple enough to understand:

1. Platform grows to have a large amount of users in one place.
2. Platform manipulates what users click on and what information users share in order to collect data about their users.
3. Platform invites businesses to join the platform because so many of its users are potential customers for the business.
4. Platform builds tools to help businesses reach more users and turn them into paying customers.
5. Platform artificially suppresses the organic reach of the business’s community posts in order to steer the business into buying paid advertisements which the platform says will reach more/all of the users/potential customers/target audience.
6. Platform removes features from the free community tools and moves them into paid advertising packages.

By this point, many affected businesses start to feel they have no choice but to pour more money into the platform because they have fell victim to the sunk cost fallacy, and they believe that this is the only way can keep reaching these potential customers.

• Platforms sell user data to businesses.
• Businesses buy access to potential customers.
• And businesses that feel forced into having a presence on a platform but don’t want to pay, make do with the free community tools.

Setting aside all of the user privacy concerns apparent in what I have laid out (yes, I know that is a lot to ask), this looks like a win for both platforms and businesses. But, if everyone is winning (in this scenario, whether users win is immaterial because they are the product and not the customer), why do I think this is about to change?

Because, once Meta (Facebook, Instagram, etc) joined Twitter in charging for verified accounts, they proved that there had to be more to it than everything that has been posted about Twitter’s potential insolvency. Now that the trend has expanded to a company not owned by Elon, we need a different explanation for it.

Verified Accounts are for businesses.

Whether we are discussing a traditional business, an actor looking to get hired, a blogger, an influencer, or someone who buys/sells online, it is all a business in the end.

Verified Accounts increase trust.

Verified Accounts let us know that we are interacting with an official representative of a brand no matter if that brand is a floor wax, a dessert topping, or a comedian.

Platforms did not charge for verification.

The platforms needed to entice the businesses into working with them instead of other ways of reaching customers. And, since both platforms and pushers call the final people in their business chain users, let’s borrow another drug reference, the first one is always free. Platforms gave away access to get businesses addicted, plain and simple.

Why charge (or change) now?

It could be any number of things, but let’s suppose that platform users becoming numb to ads reducing the effectiveness of businesses buying ads?

Okay, that sounds plausible. Generations who have grown up learning to either tune out or block ads would be less likely to click through. And, this becomes obvious to the platforms months or years sooner than it will to small businesses because the platforms have all of the data available to analyze.

It could also be users realizing that for a small fee they could roleplay as an Influencer without having to put in the hard work of generating an audience beyond their immediate circle of friends. After all, if the fishbowl is small enough, even a guppy can look like a whale.

Why risk rocking the boat?

I can only come up with one reason for this that sits well for me: through analyzing the data, the platforms are realizing that the old model is going to collapse. And, by doing this, they can hide that inevitable truth from the general public for a while longer while they continue to rake in profits.

They can explain drops in numbers through cheapskate users being unwilling to pay for “valuable” features. They can point to increased usage (goosed by users who have just paid for something and are trying to justify the cost).

By promoting more and more paid accounts, they can make the platform seem more diverse and interesting than it was before in hopes of getting more subscriptions from other users looking to emulate this faux-success.

Does AI have anything to do with any of this?

It likely does. After all, making that prediction based upon the data would be the provenance of a Machine Learning algorithm — I know, that wasn’t really what you meant.

What would the Internet look like if search was replaced by asking a question of an AI built into your browser? What would social media be like if it all took place inside a 3D virtual space? What are the questions about technologies just over the horizon that I don’t know to ask you about?

In the end, the Subscription Money Grab feels like it signals the end of an era. Yes, there will be people who buy in, but rest assured that there will also be people, of all ages, who will opt out.

And, opting out does not mean unplugging — far from it. in this case, opting out means looking for ways to connect with each other without 3rd party business interests making profits in the middle.